Likely, reach, stretch: how entering averages really work

2 min read

Every university publishes an entering average. Almost every student misreads it.

what the number actually is

The published figure is usually the average of admitted students from last year's cycle, not a cutoff. Roughly half the people admitted were below it. It moves each year with applicant volume, and it varies by program far more than by school: the same university might admit at 78 for one program and 93 for another down the hall.

It is also computed on a specific subset of your courses, typically your top grade 12 academic subjects plus any prerequisites. Your overall average, the one on your report card, is not the number they use.

You are not competing against the average. You are competing against this year's applicants for that specific program.

computing yours honestly

Take the courses the program actually requires, use your most recent grade in each, and average only those. If a required course is still in progress, use a realistic projection rather than a hopeful one. That number is the one worth planning around.

likely, reach, stretch

Likely means you are at or above the entering average with prerequisites met. Within reach means you are within a few points and one grade could close it. Stretch means the gap is large enough that the plan needs another route: a different entry program, a college transfer pathway, or a year of upgrading.

All three belong on your list. A list of only likelies means you aimed low; a list of only stretches means you have no plan.

where one grade matters

Usually only one or two courses are load-bearing. Find the lowest grade among your required subjects and ask what raising it by five or six points would unlock. Sometimes the answer is nothing, and you should spend that energy elsewhere. Sometimes it moves three programs from stretch to reachable, and that is the most valuable studying you will do all year.

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